Michael West Financials LLC · Est. 2024
Moment · 10 of 11 · Holding steady in a downturn

The market just dropped 20%.

Your balance went down a fifth in a few weeks. The headlines look worse than the chart. Your finger is on the sell button. Before you press it, two simple questions are worth more than any prediction about what comes next.

01i

A red number isn’t a loss.

What the app is showing you is the price a buyer would pay for your shares if you sold them right now, at three in the afternoon, in a week when everyone is nervous. You still own the same shares you owned a month ago. The companies inside the fund still go to work tomorrow. Nothing has left your account.

A drop on a screen is not a loss until you sell. The sell is what makes it permanent.

That distinction matters because it determines what move is even available. If a drop is information, you can sit with it. If a drop is damage, you have to react. Calling it damage when it is only information is how downturns turn calm savers into bad timers.

02ii

Selling locks in what waiting undoes.

The reflex during a drop is to stop the bleeding: move to cash, wait for the dust to settle, get back in when things look better. The math problem is that the rebound rarely waits for an all-clear. The biggest up days cluster inside the scary stretches, right next to the worst ones — and the investors most likely to miss them are the ones who just sold.

S&P 500 best days · 30-year window (1996–2025)
0%

of the market’s best days happened during a bear market or the first two months of the recovery. If you sell to dodge the drop, you also sell yourself out of the rebound — and miss it precisely because it arrives while things still feel bad.

Source: Hartford Funds, Timing the Market Is Impossible, S&P 500 1996–2025. Missing the ten best days in that 30-year window would have cut a buy-and-hold return roughly in half.

A common version of the move that goes wrong: sell in the slide, plan to re-enter “when things calm down,” watch the market run 15% off the bottom before you trust it, buy back in higher than you sold. The drop never cost you anything. The round trip did.

03iii

Every drop, so far, has come back.

Whether the current drop will recover in six months or six years is not knowable. Whether large diversified U.S. stock markets have, historically, recovered every time is. Four big ones in the last twenty-five years — each one labeled “different this time” while it was happening, each one eventually closing at a new all-time high.

S&P 500 · Major drawdowns since 2000

Every drop has come back.

Four of four. The wait was rough, and sometimes long, but never zero — and each one ended at a new all-time high.

Dot-com crash Mar 2000 → Oct 2007
New high
0 months underwater ~7 years
Financial crisis Oct 2007 → Apr 2013
New high
0 months underwater ~5.5 years
COVID crash Feb 2020 → Aug 2020
New high
0 months underwater ~6 months
2022 sell-off Jan 2022 → Jan 2024
New high
0 months underwater ~2 years
Time underwater New all-time high
Source: S&P 500 price-return, peak close to next record close. Dot-com peak: March 24, 2000 (1,552.87 intraday) → record close Oct 11, 2007. GFC peak: October 9, 2007 (1,565.15) → record close April 10, 2013. COVID peak: February 19, 2020 (3,386.15) → record close August 18, 2020. 2022 peak: January 3, 2022 (4,796.56) → record close January 19, 2024. Reinvested dividends shortened each recovery; this chart does not include them.

Two honest things to say about the chart. First, the wait was real: seven years is a long time to sit with a smaller balance, and people who needed that money during the wait got hurt. Second, the recovery only arrived for diversified buyers; an individual stock that lost half its value sometimes never came back. The headline is “markets recover,” not “everything recovers.”

04iv

Your scheduled buying is quietly winning.

If you have an automatic 401(k) contribution or a monthly transfer to a Roth IRA, you are already doing the right thing in a downturn, on autopilot. The same $500 that bought you four shares last month buys you five today. You are not catching a falling knife; you are doing the boring thing while the price is on sale.

A drop is a sale on tomorrow money

Dollar-cost averaging looks unremarkable when prices are calm and quietly excellent when they are not. Every paycheck that hits your account during a drop buys more shares for the same dollar. Years from now, the contributions you made in the scary months will be among the most valuable ones you ever made — for the embarrassing reason that you were not paying attention to them.

This is the part of the story the headlines never tell: the disciplined saver, who does nothing different, is the one a downturn rewards. Action is not required. Action is, very often, the mistake.

05v

The one move a downturn actually rewards.

If there is anything worth doing during a drop, it is in this direction: keep the automatic contribution running, and if your budget can stretch, raise it by a percentage point or two while the price is depressed. You are not timing the market — you are buying more of what you already planned to buy, while it costs less. That move ages well in a way that selling never does.

What this advice assumes — the honest carve-out

Holding steady is the right move only when two conditions are both true: you own a diversified index (a broad U.S. or global stock fund, not a single company or coin), and the money has a long horizon, meaning you do not need it within roughly the next five years. If you might need it sooner, a 20% drop is not a feature; it is a sign the money was in the wrong account to begin with — that was today money parked in a tomorrow-money place, and the lesson is to move the next dollar of it into an emergency fund or HYSA, not to sell the rest in a panic. (Advanced footnote: if you happen to have a sizable traditional IRA and a low-income year, a depressed market is also a textbook moment to ask a tax pro about a Roth conversion. That is a narrow case, not the headline.)

Most of the value in investing comes from being there for the recoveries you did not predict. The downturn rewards the saver who keeps showing up — and very mildly punishes the saver who tries to be clever about it.

06vi

One move this week.

The lesson collapses into a single small habit, decided in advance so the next red day does not have to negotiate with it. Not a forecast about when this drop ends. A standing rule about what you do until it does.

Do not log into the brokerage app this week. Confirm in your payroll or banking portal that your automatic contribution is still running, raise it by a single percentage point if your budget allows, and then close the tab. The next checkpoint is your usual quarterly look at the balance — not tomorrow’s headline.

The most valuable thing you own during a downturn is the habit you already built. Protect it from yourself, and it will outearn every clever instinct you have about what comes next.

Pause point

The market isn’t asking you a question.

A red screen does not need a response — it needs your usual one. The hardest skill in investing is not picking the winners or calling the bottom. It is sitting still while everyone else is moving, doing the boring thing your past self set up, and trusting that the same disciplines that built the balance will rebuild it.

  • A drop on a screen is not a loss until you sell — selling is what makes it permanent.
  • The biggest up days cluster inside the scary stretches: 76% of the market’s best days, in the last 30 years, happened during a bear market or the first two months of the recovery.
  • The four big drops since 2000 each closed at a new all-time high; the wait varied from about six months to about seven years.
  • Scheduled contributions during a drop buy more shares per dollar — your boring autopilot is the strategy.
  • The one move a downturn rewards is keeping (or raising) the auto-contribution, and only when your money is diversified and not needed soon.
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